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Germany, Gold, greece

Gold Rising Sharply on Falling German Industrial Output & Greece Uncertainty


Spot gold continues to respect the integrity of its up-slanted channel off of the Dec 29 corrective low at $1522.48. As long as the lower channel support line remains intact in the vicinity of $1700, the uptrend channel will continue to dictate the directional action of gold. Today’s low at $1711.57 could be the conclusion of a pullback off of last Fridays high at $1763.71. A climb above $1730 is needed to trigger initial confirmation that $1711.57 ended the latest correction, and that a new upleg within the channel has started.

With the Standard & Poor’s 500 index up 6.6 percent this year, investors have grown cautious ahead of the outcome of discussions on a bailout package for Greece that would help the country avoid a chaotic default. Aside from Greece, investors have also been keeping close eye on Iran. Tension with the West rose last month when the United States and the European Union targeted Iranian oil exports in their efforts to halt Tehran’s suspected quest for an atomic bomb. Regarding positive U.S. economic data, El-Erian said it was too premature to “declare victory” after the Labor Department’s latest employment data, which showed 243,000 jobs created in January, because of the “headwinds” of geopolitical risk in Iran and European debt issues.

German industrial production fell 2.9 percent in December from the month before, according to official data released Tuesday, suggesting the country’s economic slowdown could be worse than expected.

The number reported by Germany’s statistics agency was below market expectations for output to remain steady.

Signs for the Germany economy, Europe’s largest, have been mixed of late. Readings of consumer and business confidence have risen, and industrial orders reported Monday were up as well. That had sent a positive signal that the economy’s slowdown will not be as bad as feared and that the bottom might already have been passed. But Tuesday’s figures cast doubt on those hopes because the industrial sector is the backbone of the country’s economic prowess. The statistics agency said it expects a slight fall in output when fourth quarter figures are announced.

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